Inflation in The Iraqi Economy and Its Impact on Agricultural Imports for the Period 1990-2024

Author : Ghufran A. J. Al-Rahou and Ramia A. K. Al-Allaf

https://doi.org/10.37229/fsa.fja.2026.07.03

Agricultural imports are a cornerstone of Iraq's agricultural foreign trade, which it relies on to bridge the gap in agricultural production. The research problem lies in the negative impact of inflation on the value of agricultural imports, specifically the decrease in the purchasing power of the local currency. The importance of this research stems from the nature of the agricultural sector in Iraq, which is highly sensitive to changes in the value and quantity of its agricultural imports. This research aims to estimate the impact of inflation and other variables on the value of agricultural imports during the period 1990-2024, based on the hypothesis that inflation has a negative impact on the value of agricultural imports. To prove this hypothesis, an econometric model using the ordinary least squares method and the E-Views 12 software was applied. The study reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that agricultural imports contribute to mitigating the severity of the food deficit and constitute a significant portion of total import values. We recommend adopting a short- and long-term agricultural import policy and establishing integrated sectors for agricultural production inputs.

Keywords : Agricultural imports, inflation, Iraq, foreign exchange rate, ARDL model,

Received:4/10/2026 12:00:00 AM; Accepted: 5/12/2026 12:00:00 AM