https://doi.org/10.37229/fsa.fjb.2026.07.14

Background: Khawlani coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is a traditional Arabica landrace cultivated in the mountainous landscapes of Jazan, southwestern Saudi Arabia, and is an important agricultural heritage crop with considerable socioeconomic, cultural and economic value. Climate change, particularly in terms of its effects on the distribution, abundance and phenology of insect pests, is an increasing threat to the sustainability of Khawlani coffee production, even with growing government support under Saudi Vision 2030. Objective: This review evaluates the potential effects of climate change on major insect pests for coffee, and Khawlani coffee production, and assesses the vulnerability of smallholder farming systems in Jazan. It also points to climate-smart adaptation options for improving long-term resilience and sustainability. Methods: A systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 2015 and 2026 was undertaken to investigate the ecology, climate sensitivity and projected distribution of key coffee pests, including Hypothenemus hampei, Leucoptera coffeella and Planococcus citri. Species distribution modelling (SDM) studies based on MaxEnt, CLIMEX and generalized linear models (GLMs) were integrated using Worldclim bioclimatic variables and regional climate data from the National Center for Meteorology (NCM). Vulnerability was assessed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework, using indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Results: Available evidence supports the establishment and continuing expansion of the coffee berry borer (H. hampei) within the major coffee growing districts of Jazan. Model projections suggest a 42-67% increase in the climatic range of suitable habitat by 2050, moving upward in suitability from around 1,200 to 1,800 m above sea level under future warming scenarios. Vulnerability analysis classified Khawlani coffee smallholders as highly vulnerable with low adaptive capacity index (2.1/10) mainly due to demographic aging, reliance on rainfed agriculture, limited extension support and inadequate risk-management mechanisms. Conclusions: Climate change is expected to significantly increase pest pressure and potentially reduce Khawlani coffee yields by 25–40% by 2050, in the absence of effective adaptation measures. Improving climate-smart integrated pest management through development of early warning systems, biological control, improved field sanitation, shade management based on agroforestry and inclusive extension programs will be essential for safeguarding rural livelihoods and conserving Saudi Arabia’s coffee heritage under future climatic conditions.